Will BAX's Q4 Earnings Reflect Its Efforts to Counter Headwinds?

Core Viewpoint - Baxter International Inc. is expected to report mixed fourth-quarter 2024 results, with revenue and earnings anticipated to decline significantly year-over-year due to various operational challenges and macroeconomic pressures [3][11]. Revenue Estimates - The consensus estimate for revenues is $2.66 billion, reflecting a 31.5% decline from the prior-year quarter [2] - The model estimates total revenues to decline 3.3% at constant currency to $2.67 billion [2]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for earnings is 52 cents per share, indicating a 40.9% year-over-year decline [2] - Adjusted earnings per share are expected to decline 4.7% to 81 cents [2][11]. Factors Influencing Performance - Strong momentum in certain product lines is expected, but operational challenges and macroeconomic pressures may temper overall results [3]. - Recovery from Hurricane Helene and cost-control initiatives are key macro drivers affecting performance [3]. - Pricing initiatives and operational efficiencies are anticipated to provide some support [3]. Segment Performance - The Medical Products & Therapies segment may face near-term pressure from Hurricane Helene, potentially impacting sales by $150-$160 million [4]. - Growth in infusion therapies, particularly the Novum IQ pump platform, is a bright spot expected to continue [5]. - The Advanced Surgery division is expected to maintain steady demand, with total segment sales estimated to decline 5.1% at constant currency to $1.27 billion [6]. - The Healthcare Systems & Technologies segment may reflect softness in the U.S. primary care market, but patient support systems are expected to grow in the low double-digits [7]. - The Frontline Care division might see improved performance due to stabilization in the primary care market and new product launches, with total segment sales estimated to decline 6.3% at constant currency to $744.8 million [8]. - The Pharmaceuticals segment is likely to rebound, with strong performance expected from the injectable drug portfolio [9]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term headwinds from Hurricane Helene, the company’s focus on operational efficiency and product innovation is expected to support stabilization and modest growth [11]. - Sales are anticipated to decline in the low single digits on a reported basis, with adjusted EPS expected between 77 cents and 81 cents [11]. Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for Baxter this time, as the Earnings ESP is 0.00% [12].