Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Q4 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimates

Core Viewpoint - Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.66 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 53.7%, with revenues projected at $1.42 billion, up 21.6% from the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts have not revised the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days, indicating stability in projections [1]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong relationship between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [2]. Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Revenue- Franchise royalties and fees' at $8.88 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 26.8% [4]. - The average prediction for 'Revenue- Restaurant and other sales' is $1.41 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of 21.6% [4]. Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth - 'Comparable restaurant sales growth - Company restaurants' is expected to reach 7.6%, down from 9.9% in the same quarter last year [5]. - For 'U.S. Franchise-owned restaurants', the growth is projected at 6.7%, compared to 8.9% a year ago [6]. Restaurant Count Projections - Analysts forecast 'Restaurants at the end - Total' to reach 784, up from 741 in the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Restaurants at the end - Company - Total' is expected to be 665, compared to 635 a year ago [6]. - 'Restaurants at the end - Franchise - Total' is projected at 118, up from 106 in the previous year [7]. New Openings and Store Weeks - The number of restaurants opened by the company is expected to be 7, down from 12 a year ago [6]. - For franchises, the estimate for new openings stands at 4, compared to 7 last year [7]. - 'Store weeks - Company restaurants' is projected to reach 9,268, up from 8,158 in the same quarter last year [8]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Texas Roadhouse have returned -3.9%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has changed by +4.9% [9]. - Texas Roadhouse currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance in the near future [9].