Louisiana-Pacific to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 19, with positive earnings expectations despite some challenges in specific segments [1][12]. Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, LPX's earnings and net sales exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 38.6% and 3.2%, respectively, although both metrics declined year-over-year by 20.7% and 0.8% [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for LPX's fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is 79 cents, reflecting an increase of 11.3% from 71 cents reported a year ago [3]. - The consensus estimate for net sales is $664.4 million, indicating a 1% increase from $658 million in the prior year [3]. Revenue Drivers - The fourth-quarter revenue is anticipated to increase year-over-year, primarily driven by the strength in the Siding business, which accounted for 54.4% of sales in the third quarter [4]. - The Siding segment is expected to see revenue growth of 9-10% year-over-year, reaching approximately $365 million, supported by solid demand and the rollout of SmartSide products [6]. - The consensus estimate for the Siding segment's net sales is pegged at $370 million, up from $332 million in the previous year [6]. Segment Challenges - The Oriented Strand Board (OSB) segment, which accounted for 32.8% of sales, is facing a challenging price environment, with expected net sales of $249 million, down from $272 million in the prior year [7][8]. - Seasonal downtime is expected to impact OSB volumes in the fourth quarter [7]. Margin Expectations - LPX anticipates a consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $85-$105 million, down from $129 million reported a year ago, with Siding contributing $70-$80 million [10]. - The consensus estimate for adjusted EBITDA for the Siding segment is $85 million, an increase from $72 million in the previous year, while OSB's adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline to $41 million from $59 million [11]. Earnings Prediction - The model predicts an earnings beat for LPX, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +21.14% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [12][13].