American Axle Q4 Loss Narrower Than Expected, Revenues Decline Y/Y

Core Viewpoint - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (AXL) reported a narrower adjusted loss in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year, but revenues declined year-over-year and missed consensus estimates [1] Financial Performance - The company reported an adjusted loss of 6 cents per share, better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 8 cents, and an improvement from a loss of 9 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1] - Quarterly revenues were $1.38 billion, a decline of 5.6% year-over-year, and below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.39 billion [1] - The Driveline segment generated sales of $979.6 million, down 3.5% year-over-year, but exceeded the estimate of $955 million; adjusted EBITDA for this segment was $133.3 million, down 4.9% year-over-year, beating the estimate of $130 million [2] - The Metal Forming segment reported revenues of $520.6 million, a decrease of 9.7% from the previous year, missing the estimate of $558 million; adjusted EBITDA was $27.5 million, down 6.5% but surpassing the estimate of $11.7 million [3] Financial Position - SG&A expenses for Q4 totaled $89 million, down from $95.7 million in the prior year [4] - Net cash provided by operating activities was $151.2 million, an increase from $52.9 million in the year-ago period [4] - Capital spending in the quarter was $77.6 million, up from $55.9 million reported in the previous year [4] - Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $79.2 million, compared to $4.5 million in the same period last year [5] - As of December 31, 2024, cash and cash equivalents were $552.9 million, up from $519.9 million a year earlier; net long-term debt decreased to $2.58 billion from $2.75 billion [5] Outlook - For 2025, the company projects revenues between $5.8 billion and $6.05 billion, with adjusted EBITDA estimated between $700 million and $760 million [6] - Expected net cash provided by operating activities is between $475 million and $505 million, with capital expenditures anticipated at $300 million; adjusted free cash flow is expected to be in the range of $200 million to $230 million [6] Market Position - AXL currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold); better-ranked stocks in the auto sector include Dana (DAN) with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), and Garrett Motion (GTX) and Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) both with a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [7]