Novavax(NVAX) ZACKS·2025-02-19 15:40Core Viewpoint - Novavax is set to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings, with expectations of a loss of 67 cents per share and sales estimated at 82 million for the upcoming quarter, indicating minimal vaccine sales [3]. - In the last reported quarter, Novavax's earnings exceeded estimates by 12.64% [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Novavax's updated protein-based COVID-19 vaccine received FDA authorization later than mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, which may have impacted its market performance [2]. - The mRNA vaccines are designed to target the more advanced KP.2 strain, while Novavax's vaccine targets the JN.1 strain, potentially limiting its competitive edge [2]. Group 3: Research and Development Updates - Novavax has initiated a phase III study for its experimental COVID-19-influenza combination vaccine and standalone influenza vaccine, which will compare their immunogenicity and safety [4]. - The company is also expected to provide updates on its technology transfer to Sanofi, which will take over commercial responsibilities for Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine starting January 1, 2025 [5]. Group 4: Pipeline and Future Opportunities - Novavax is advancing its preclinical pipeline, focusing on vaccines for RSV and H5N1 bird flu, and exploring new opportunities in diseases like varicella-zoster virus and Clostridium difficile colitis [6]. - The company plans to expand into oncology, indicating a broader strategic focus beyond COVID-19 [6]. Group 5: Earnings Surprise History - Novavax has missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 56.95% [7]. - Year-to-date, Novavax's shares have increased by 3%, compared to a 5% growth in the industry [7]. Group 6: Earnings Prediction Model - Current models do not predict an earnings beat for Novavax, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [9].