CIBC(CM) ZACKS·2025-02-20 16:06Core Viewpoint - The Canadian Imperial Bank (CM) is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues, with the consensus outlook being crucial for assessing the company's earnings picture [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is anticipated on February 27, 2025, with expected quarterly earnings of 4.79 billion, up 4% from the previous year [3][2]. - A positive earnings surprise could lead to a stock price increase, while a miss could result in a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from covering analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Canadian Imperial Bank is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -5.15%, suggesting a bearish sentiment among analysts [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with a focus on positive readings for predictive power [6][7]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have historically shown a nearly 70% chance of delivering a positive surprise [8]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Canadian Imperial Bank exceeded the expected earnings of 1.40, resulting in a surprise of +11.11% [12]. - The company has beaten consensus EPS estimates in all of the last four quarters [13]. Industry Context - In comparison, Bank of Montreal (BMO) is expected to report earnings of 5.98 billion, up 5.3% [17]. - BMO's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.4% lower, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -3.57%, making it difficult to predict a beat on consensus estimates [18].