Earnings Preview: Smucker (SJM) Q3 Earnings Expected to Decline

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in Smucker's earnings due to lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results will compare to these estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Smucker is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.35 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 5.2%, and revenues are projected to be $2.23 billion, down 0.1% from the previous year [3]. - The earnings report is scheduled for release on February 27, 2025, and could influence stock movement depending on whether the results exceed or fall short of expectations [2]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.62% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [4][10]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Smucker is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -0.40%, which complicates predictions of an earnings beat [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with a strong predictive power for positive readings [6][7]. - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 have historically shown a nearly 70% chance of delivering a positive surprise [8]. Historical Performance - Smucker has a history of beating consensus EPS estimates, having done so in the last four quarters, including a surprise of +9.96% in the most recent quarter [12][13]. - Despite this history, the current combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 makes it challenging to predict a beat for the upcoming report [11][16]. Conclusion - While Smucker does not appear to be a compelling earnings-beat candidate, investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance ahead of the earnings release [16].