Will Lower Premiums Earned Affect ProAssurance's Q4 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - ProAssurance Corporation (PRA) is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2024 results on February 24, 2025, with earnings estimated at 15 cents per share and revenues of $271.98 million, indicating a year-over-year earnings improvement of 400% but a revenue decline of 4.6% [1][2]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ProAssurance's total revenues in 2024 is $1.11 billion, reflecting a slight decline of 0.5% year-over-year, while the EPS estimate is 80 cents, a significant recovery from a loss of 14 cents in the previous year [3]. - ProAssurance has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 61.5% [3]. Earnings Prediction - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for ProAssurance, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [4]. Factors Influencing Q4 Results - Rising investment income is expected to contribute positively, with a projected 11.9% year-over-year growth in net investment income [6]. - The net loss ratio is estimated to improve to 78.57%, down from 78.90% a year ago, indicating enhanced efficiency [6]. - Total expenses are anticipated to decline by approximately 7% in the quarter [6]. Segment Performance - The Workers' Compensation Insurance unit is projected to show a 46.4% improvement in operating income year-over-year, while the Segregated Portfolio Cell Reinsurance unit is expected to see over a 30% increase [7]. - However, lower premiums earned are likely to negatively impact results, with a consensus estimate indicating a 6.5% decline in net premiums earned [8]. - The underwriting expense ratio is expected to be 33.07%, and the Specialty P&C Segment's operating income is projected to deteriorate by over 23% year-over-year, complicating the earnings outlook [8].