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MercadoLibre: High-Growth EM Stock With 100% Upside Potential
MELIMercadoLibre(MELI) MarketBeat·2025-02-21 16:08

Core Viewpoint - MercadoLibre is well-positioned for sustained high-quality growth over the next decade, despite being highly valued relative to its 2024 estimates, with a price multiple that does not fully reflect its potential [3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q4, MercadoLibre reported net revenue of 12.61billion,representinga37.412.61 billion, representing a 37.4% year-over-year increase, exceeding consensus estimates by 200 basis points [6][8]. - The company experienced a 33% increase in total payment volume, a 24% increase in unique buyers, and an 8% gain in gross merchandise volume, with FX-neutral growth rates of 49% and 56% respectively [7]. - Adjusted earnings reached 12.61, up nearly 60% year-over-year, significantly surpassing consensus forecasts by more than 5.00[8].MarketPositionandValuationMercadoLibretradesatonly7xits2033forecasts,whilepeerslikeAmazonandWalmarttradeat15xto21xtheir2033estimates,suggestingapotentialstockpriceincreaseof1005.00 [8]. Market Position and Valuation - MercadoLibre trades at only 7x its 2033 forecasts, while peers like Amazon and Walmart trade at 15x to 21x their 2033 estimates, suggesting a potential stock price increase of 100% to 200% driven by price multiple expansion [5][4]. - The stock price forecast for the next 12 months is 2,320.31, indicating a 2.23% upside based on 17 analyst ratings, with a high forecast of $3,000.00 [10]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to continue expanding its capacity in 2025, showing clear momentum with solid double-digit growth across its primary markets [9]. - Despite not returning significant capital to shareholders through dividends or buybacks, MercadoLibre is self-funding its growth and has a strong balance sheet [11]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts show a positive shift in sentiment for MercadoLibre, with increased coverage and a high conviction in the Buy rating, alongside upgrades and price target revisions [13].