Home Improvement Retailers Face Tough Earnings Environment

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot, Lowe's, and TJX Companies are set to release quarterly results, with a particular focus on Nvidia's upcoming earnings report, which is expected to provide insights into the AI chip market [1][21][22] Group 1: Company Performance - Home Depot shares have slightly outperformed Lowe's in the year-to-date period, but both have significantly underperformed the broader market [1] - Home Depot's same-store sales have been negative for the last eight quarters, with a current estimate of a -1.7% decline for the upcoming report [6][7] - Lowe's is also facing pressure on same-store sales, with a current estimate of a -1.67% decline, and expected earnings of $1.82 per share on$18.29 billion in revenues, reflecting a year-over-year EPS increase of +2.8% but a revenue decline of -1.7% [8] Group 2: Market Environment - The operating environment for Home Depot and Lowe's is challenging due to unfavorable interest rates, which are impacting existing home sales and consequently their sales performance [4][5] - Elevated mortgage rates are a significant headwind for sales, as affordability issues keep potential buyers sidelined [5][10] - The Fed's easing policy may not lead to a rapid decrease in mortgage rates, suggesting that existing home sales trends are unlikely to improve in the near term [9][10] Group 3: Retail Sector Overview - In the broader retail sector, Q4 earnings for 21 retailers in the S&P 500 are up +36.8% year-over-year, with 71.4% beating EPS estimates [12][13] - The earnings growth in the retail sector is significantly influenced by Amazon, which reported a +86.9% increase in Q4 earnings [14][15] - Excluding Amazon, the rest of the retail sector has seen only a +3% increase in earnings, indicating that much of the growth is concentrated in a few key players [15]