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Reddit Shares Tumble as User Growth Disappoints. Is Now a Golden Opportunity to Buy the Stock?
RDDTReddit(RDDT) The Motley Fool·2025-02-22 21:30

Core Insights - Reddit's stock has experienced a significant increase of 20% year to date, despite a drop following its Q4 earnings report, with shares rising more than five times since its March 2024 IPO [1][3] Financial Performance - Reddit's Q4 revenue surged 71% year over year to 427.7million,withadrevenueincreasingby60427.7 million, with ad revenue increasing by 60% to 394.5 million and other revenue at 33.2million[4]Dailyusersroseby3933.2 million [4] - Daily users rose by 39% to 102 million, while weekly users grew by 42% to 379 million, although daily user numbers fell short of analyst expectations [5] - Average revenue per user (ARPU) increased by 23% to 4.21 [5] - Adjusted EBITDA soared from 23millionayearagoto23 million a year ago to 154 million, with earnings per share (EPS) reported at 0.36[10]FutureOutlookThecompanyforecastsQ1revenuebetween0.36 [10] Future Outlook - The company forecasts Q1 revenue between 360 million to 370million,indicatingagrowthof48370 million, indicating a growth of 48% to 52%, and projects adjusted EBITDA in the range of 80 million to $90 million, representing 700% to 800% growth [11] - Reddit's user base is approximately 50% international, presenting a significant growth opportunity as it rolls out machine learning translation to enhance user engagement [13] Strategic Initiatives - Reddit is investing in adtech and AI to improve advertising performance, including new ad formats and features like Trends for better audience engagement [6] - A new AI product, Reddit Answers, aims to assist users with various inquiries, enhancing the platform's utility [7] - The company is addressing a recent decline in traffic due to a Google search algorithm change, which has since recovered [9] Valuation - The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 66 times 2025 analyst estimates and an enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 58 times, which is considered reasonable given expected high revenue growth [14]