Peloton Stock Has Soared 256% From Its 52-Week Low. Is It Too Late to Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Peloton Interactive has experienced significant fluctuations in stock performance and sales, transitioning from a pandemic success to facing substantial losses and strategic changes [1][2][3]. Sales Performance - Sales have drastically declined since the return to normal social conditions, leading to concerns about the company's survival and prompting a management shakeup [2][3]. - Subscription revenue has become more significant than equipment sales, but it has stalled, with a 1% year-over-year decrease in subscription revenue during Q2 of fiscal 2025 [5]. - The number of connected fitness subscribers decreased by 4% to 2.88 million, while paid app subscribers fell by 19% to 579,000 [5]. - Equipment revenue is declining at a faster rate, down 20% in Q2, with total revenue for fiscal 2025 projected at $2.4 billion, a 9$92.8 million, significantly reduced from $354.1 million in the previous year, driven by a 27.5$174.2 million, indicating a positive trend despite not being true profitability [9]. Future Outlook - Continuous cost-cutting may hinder the company's ability to attract new customers and innovate, risking a downward revenue spiral [10]. - Peloton's current price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 1.3, suggesting increased investor confidence, but it remains low compared to historical levels, indicating potential for recovery [11]. - The company has $829 million in cash but also carries$948 million in debt, which will need to be addressed [12]. - The new CEO, Peter Stern, is expected to leverage his experience to build on previous strategies and guide the company back to growth [14].