Sunnova Energy (NOVA) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: Should You Buy?

Core Viewpoint - Sunnova Energy (NOVA) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ended December 2024, with the actual results being a significant factor influencing its near-term stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate indicates a quarterly loss of $0.81 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of -305%, while revenues are projected to be $234.53 million, representing a 20.8% increase from the previous year [3]. - The earnings report is expected to be released on March 3, and the stock may rise if the reported figures exceed expectations, whereas a miss could lead to a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.73% higher, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Sunnova Energy is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +3.06%, suggesting a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate, with positive readings being more reliable [7][8]. - Historical performance shows that Sunnova Energy has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times in the last four quarters, although it missed expectations in the most recent quarter by a significant margin [12][13]. Industry Comparison - Another player in the solar industry, Sunrun (RUN), is expected to report a loss of $0.27 per share, with revenues projected at $538.42 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.2% [17]. - Sunrun's consensus EPS estimate has been revised 4.2% lower, resulting in a negative Earnings ESP of -174.62%, making it challenging to predict a beat against the consensus [18].