VST Set to Report Q4 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Vistra Corp. is expected to report improved top and bottom-line figures for the fourth quarter of 2024, with significant increases in revenue and earnings per share compared to the previous year [1][4]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $4.38 billion, reflecting a 42.34$3.08 billion [2][3]. - For the next quarter, the revenue estimate is $4.88 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 59.78$1.59, indicating a substantial increase of 431.25% from the previous year's earnings [4]. - The earnings estimates for the current year and next year are $19.23 billion and$21.31 billion, respectively, showing a year-over-year growth of 30.12% and 10.81% [3]. Adjusted EBITDA - The consensus estimate for Adjusted EBITDA - Retail is $434.54 million, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 6.2$302.06 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 31.3% [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA - East is pegged at $638.38 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 251.6% [8]. Market Performance - Vistra's shares have outperformed the industry, gaining 192.8% over the past year compared to the industry's growth of 24% [11]. - The company is currently trading at a premium with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 21.75X, compared to the industry average of 14.58X [14]. Strategic Initiatives - Vistra is enhancing its generation capabilities through both organic and inorganic initiatives, which is expected to create synergies and improve performance [17]. - The company’s integrated business model provides a competitive advantage by stabilizing earnings and cash flow against commodity price fluctuations [7][19]. Clean Energy Focus - The demand for clean electricity is rising in Vistra's operational regions, and the company is increasing its clean energy generation capacity through acquisitions and organic growth [19].