Core Viewpoint - Nebius Group has experienced significant volatility in its stock price, with a recent decline of over 28% from its 52-week high, influenced by a market-wide sell-off and mixed analyst reactions to its Q4 and full-year 2024 financial results [2][3] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, Nebius reported revenue of $37.9 million, a remarkable 466% year-over-year increase, with its core AI infrastructure segment growing by 602% compared to Q4 2023 [3][4] - Despite the revenue surge, the company faced challenges with profitability, posting an adjusted EBITDA loss of $75.5 million, although this was a 7% improvement from the previous year's loss of $81.3 million [4] - The net loss from continuing operations increased to $136.6 million, a 55% rise year-over-year, while capital expenditures reached $417.6 million in Q4 due to heavy investments in GPU procurement and data center expansion [4][5] - For the full year 2024, Nebius achieved revenue of $117.5 million, a 462% increase from 2023, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $266.4 million and a net loss of $396.9 million [5] Future Guidance - Nebius provided ambitious guidance for 2025, projecting an annualized run-rate (ARR) of $220 million by March, scaling to between $750 million and $1 billion by December, with full-year revenue expected to be between $500 million and $700 million [6] - The company aims for near-breakeven EBITDA by the end of 2025, supported by plans to expand data center capacity to 100 megawatts, with potential scaling to over 300 megawatts [6] Analyst Sentiment - Analyst reactions to Nebius's Q4 earnings report were mixed, with BWS Financial maintaining a Buy rating and raising its price target from $51 to $60, citing strong Q1 guidance and growth potential [7] - Conversely, Hedgeye Global Technology reversed its bullish stance, removing its long position due to perceived misalignment in management's vision and light guidance, contributing to selling pressure [8][9] - DA Davidson initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $50 price target, recognizing Nebius as a potential alternative to hyperscaler-dominated AI compute [9] Long-Term Outlook - Despite recent stock pullbacks, there are optimistic long-term prospects for Nebius, driven by increasing demand for AI infrastructure and strong institutional backing, including investments from NVIDIA and other notable firms [10] - The company's guidance for a $1 billion ARR target by year-end indicates aggressive scaling intentions, with NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report expected to provide insights into the AI sector's health and potential benefits for Nebius [11]
Nebius Slides Post-Earnings: A Long-Term Buy Opportunity?