Tempus AI Falls 15% on Weak Q4 but EBITDA View Strong: Buy the Dip?

Core Viewpoint - Tempus AI has experienced a significant decline in stock price following weaker-than-expected Q4 2024 results, despite a strong year-to-date performance and a positive long-term growth outlook driven by revenue forecasts and strategic acquisitions [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, Tempus AI achieved a 35.8% year-over-year revenue growth, with Genomics sales growing by 30.6% and Data and Services growing by 44.6% [6]. - The company ended 2024 with a total remaining contract value of $940 million and a net revenue retention rate of 140%, indicating strong customer engagement [6]. - For fiscal 2025, Tempus AI forecasts revenues of $1.24 billion, representing a 79% year-over-year growth [12]. - The adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve to $5 million in 2025, a $110 million increase compared to 2024 [13][15]. - The cumulative operating cash outflow was reduced to $189 million at the end of Q4 2024, down from $214.3 million a year ago [16]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Ambry Genetics, finalized in February 2025, enhances Tempus' genomics capabilities [7]. - A five-year extension of the partnership with Google ensures favorable cloud computing costs and technological support, crucial for Tempus' AI-driven solutions [8]. - Regulatory achievements include FDA approval for the xT CDx diagnostic device and CMS reimbursement approval for the Tempus ECG-AF algorithm, validating the company's AI technology [9][10]. Market Position and Comparisons - Year-to-date, Tempus AI's stock has increased by 75%, outperforming the Medical Info Systems industry (21.6%) and the Medical sector (6.4%) [3]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 9.9, higher than the industry average of 6.17 and other competitors like iRhythm Technologies (5.13) and SOPHiA GENETICS (3.15) [22]. Outlook and Investor Sentiment - The AI market is projected to grow significantly, positioning Tempus AI to capitalize on expanding opportunities in healthcare [24]. - Despite long-term growth potential, the recent disappointing Q4 performance and high valuation may limit near-term gains, suggesting that new investors should wait for a better entry point [25].