Boston Beer's Q4 Loss Wider Than Expected, Depletions Flat Y/Y

Core Insights - Boston Beer Company reported a wider-than-expected adjusted loss per share of $1.68 for Q4 2024, compared to a loss of$1.49 in the same quarter last year, while revenues of $402.3 million exceeded estimates and increased by 2.2$402.3 million increased by 2.2% from the prior-year quarter and surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $390 million, driven by higher prices and lower returns, although partially offset by soft volumes and elevated excise taxes [2] - The gross profit rose by 8.7$160.7 million, with gross margin expanding by 230 basis points to 39.9% from 37.6% in the year-ago quarter, benefiting from higher revenues and procurement savings [6] - Advertising, promotional, and selling expenses increased by 8.5% to $139.5 million due to higher brand and selling expenses, while general and administrative expenses rose by 9.1$47.7 million [7] Shipment and Inventory - Shipment volume declined by 0.5% year-over-year to nearly 1.5 million barrels in Q4, with flat depletions year-over-year, primarily due to weak performance from Truly Hard Seltzer, offset by growth in other brands [4] - As of December 28, 2024, distributor inventory averaged nearly four weeks on hand, down from five and a half weeks in the previous quarter [5] Future Guidance - For 2025, the company anticipates depletions and shipments to be in the range of low single-digit declines to low single-digit increases, with a price hike of 1-2% expected to offset commodity and inflationary impacts [12] - The company projects a gross margin of 45-47% for 2025, accounting for negative impacts from shortfall fees and non-cash expenses [13] - Capital spending is expected to be between $90-$110 million, primarily for brewery enhancements, with GAAP earnings per share projected to be in the range of $8-$10.50 for 2025 [14]