Why Is JetBlue (JBLU) Up 9.7% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Viewpoint - JetBlue Airways reported a narrower loss in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year, aided by lower operating costs, but overall revenues declined year over year, raising questions about future performance as estimates trend downward [2][3][12]. Financial Performance - JetBlue reported a Q4 2024 loss of 21 cents per share, which was better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 30 cents, but wider than the loss of 19 cents per share reported in the same quarter last year [2]. - Operating revenues were $2.28 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of$ 2.26 billion, but down 2.1% year over year. Passenger revenues, which make up 92.1% of total revenues, fell 3.1% to $2.1 billion, while other revenues increased by 11.5% to$ 177 million [3][4]. Key Metrics - Revenue per available seat mile (RASM) increased by 3.2% year over year to 14.11 cents, while passenger revenue per available seat mile grew by 2.2% to 13.01 cents. The average fare decreased slightly by 0.3% to $211.18 [4]. - Consolidated traffic declined by 2.6% year over year, and capacity dropped by 5.1%. However, the consolidated load factor improved by 2.1 percentage points to 82.2% [5]. Cost Structure - Total operating costs decreased by 5.5% year over year to$ 2.26 billion. Salaries, wages, and benefits increased by 10.3%, while aircraft fuel expenses fell by 27.3%, with the average fuel price per gallon at $2.47, down 22.3% year over year [6]. Future Outlook - For Q1 2025, JetBlue anticipates a capacity decline of 2-5% and expects CASM (excluding fuel and special items) to rise by 8-10%. Capital expenditures are projected at approximately$ 270 million [7]. - For the full year 2025, capacity is expected to remain flat, with CASM (excluding fuel and special items) predicted to increase by 5-7% and RASM expected to rise by 3-6% [8]. Estimate Trends - Recent estimates for JetBlue have shown a downward trend, with a consensus estimate shift of -52.63% [9][12]. Industry Comparison - JetBlue is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry, where Ryanair reported a revenue increase of 8.6% year over year, contrasting with JetBlue's revenue decline [13].