Why Is Methanex (MEOH) Down 15.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Insights - Methanex's Q4 2024 earnings report showed a net income of $45 million, or 67 cents per share, an increase from $33 million, or 50 cents per share, in the prior year [2] - Adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.24 from 52 cents year-over-year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.01 [2] - Net sales for Q4 were $949 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,023.7 million, but showing a 3% growth from the previous year [3] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter increased by 105.7% year-over-year to $216 million [3] - Production in Q4 was 1,868,000 tons, up approximately 5% year-over-year, driven by higher output in Chile, New Zealand, Geismar, and Egypt [4] - The average realized price per ton of methanol rose to $370, compared to $356 in the previous quarter and $322 in the year-ago quarter, attributed to stable global demand amid tight market conditions [5] Full Year Results - For FY24, net sales were $3,720 million, slightly down from $3,723 million in FY23, while adjusted earnings per share increased to $3.72 from $2.25 [6] - Methanex returned $50 million to shareholders through dividends and repaid a $300 million bond due in December with operational cash flows [7] - The company ended the year with $892 million in cash and reported an operating cash flow of $281 million in Q4 [7] Future Outlook - Methanex's production guidance for 2025 is approximately 7.5 million tons, excluding additional production from OCI assets [8] - In Q1 2025, significantly higher adjusted EBITDA is expected compared to Q4 2024, with produced sales anticipated to be near Q4 levels and a higher average realized price projected between $395 to $405 per ton for January and February [9] - Estimates for the stock have trended upward, with a consensus estimate shift of 17.02% in the past month [10] Investment Metrics - Methanex currently holds a strong Growth Score of A, a Momentum Score of A, and a Value Score of A, placing it in the top quintile for investment strategies [11] - The stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A, indicating strong overall performance across multiple investment strategies [11] - Methanex has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [12]