Six Flags' Stock Reflects Best-Case Scenario—Analyst Warns Of Growth & Cost Risks

Core Insights - J.P. Morgan analyst Matthew R. Boss reiterated an Underweight rating on Six Flags Entertainment Corp (FUN) with a price forecast of $46.00, citing a significant EBITDA miss in Q4 [1] - FUN's Q4 EBITDA fell approximately 30% short of the Street's estimate of $190 million, driven by revenue and cost discrepancies [1][2] - Revenue increased 3.6% year-over-year to $687 million, but was below the Street's forecast of $704 million, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 19.0%, well below the expected 27.0% [2] Attendance and Growth Projections - FUN reported a total of 10.7 million visitors, marking a 6.2% year-over-year increase, slightly missing the Street's projected 6.5% growth [2] - Management indicated a target of 55 million attendees by 2027, with 2025 being a volume-focused year contributing to long-term growth [4] - The company expects a 3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025 to 2027, with 2025 likely below this average [4] Pricing and Revenue Strategy - In 2025, the primary focus will be on driving volume, which may involve less aggressive pricing strategies, potentially leading to negative year-over-year growth in admissions per capita [5] - The Street had forecasted a growth of +0.8% in admissions per capita, which is now expected to face downward pressure [5] Market Position and Valuation - The combined entity of FUN, with 42 parks, is well-positioned within the regional theme park sector, benefiting from geographic diversification and opportunities to enhance guest experience [6] - However, these advantages are already reflected in the current valuation, suggesting limited upside potential [6] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include challenges in regaining attendance, pricing pressure on admissions and in-park spending, and a higher cost base due to differing starting points of the two brands [7] - An elevated capital expenditure cycle required to improve Six Flags' assets could pressure free cash flow and capital allocation, especially given current debt leverage of around 4.8x [7] Stock Performance - FUN shares are trading higher by 2.35% at $44.38 as of the last check [8]