Will Home Depot Stock Continue to Rally? Same-Store Sales Turn Positive, but Company Remains Cautious.

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot has reported a positive same-store sales growth for the first time since Q3 2022, indicating a potential turnaround in performance after a prolonged period of decline [1][4]. Sales Performance - Home Depot achieved a 0.8% increase in same-store sales for fiscal Q4, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 1.7% decline [4][5]. - U.S. same-store sales rose by 1.3%, with a 0.6% increase in the number of transactions and a 0.2% rise in average ticket size, primarily driven by higher prices of lumber and copper wire [4][5]. - Ten out of Home Depot's 16 product categories reported positive comparable sales growth, with strength noted in appliances, building materials, and lumber [6]. Financial Results - Overall revenue increased by 14% to $39.7 billion, aided by an extra week in the quarter and the acquisition of SRS Distribution [7]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 7$3.02, exceeding analyst consensus estimates of $3.01 [7]. Future Outlook - Home Depot forecasts a revenue growth of 2.8% and a 1% increase in same-store sales for the upcoming period, with adjusted EPS expected to decline by about 2% [8]. - The company plans to open 13 new stores in 2025 [8]. Market Conditions - The housing environment is expected to remain challenging, with no significant rebound in new housing starts or existing home turnover anticipated [10]. - High interest rates are likely to continue impacting large home remodeling projects, which are often financed [10][11]. Valuation - Home Depot's stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 26 and a forward P/E of 25.8 based on 2025 estimates, indicating a high valuation relative to historical metrics [12].