Boeing's Space Business Could Be Stoppable After All in 2025

Core Viewpoint - Boeing's defense and space business is facing uncertainty due to delays in the certification of the Vulcan rocket, which could impact revenue and profitability projections for 2025 [1][3][8]. Group 1: Certification and Revenue Impact - The Vulcan rocket, developed by the Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture ULA, has not yet received national security certification, which is crucial for launching missions worth billions for the U.S. Space Force [2][4]. - ULA's CEO had previously anticipated certification would occur "momentarily," but the delay is causing concern among investors [4][5]. - The expectation of 20 launches in 2025, generating over $2 billion in revenue for ULA, is now in jeopardy, which directly affects Boeing's revenue share [6][8]. Group 2: Financial Projections and Profitability - Analysts project Boeing will achieve $85 billion in revenue this year and return to profitability for the first time since 2018, but this is contingent on the timely certification of Vulcan [7]. - Delays in certification are pushing back Boeing's expected space revenue and profitability timeline, with potential profitability now not expected until 2026 [8][10]. - Despite a forecasted small net profit this year, Boeing is experiencing significant negative free cash flow of nearly $4.9 billion, complicating its financial outlook for 2025 [9]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - While 2025 may not meet expectations, ULA plans to ramp up to a launch cadence of about 30 rockets per year in the long term, which includes both commercial and government missions [12]. - The market capitalization of Boeing is currently at $130 billion, with an enterprise value of $160 billion, but analysts do not foresee significant profitability or free cash flow generation before 2028 [12].