BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) May Report Negative Earnings: Know the Trend Ahead of Q4 Release

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues for the quarter ended December 2024, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Financial Expectations - The consensus EPS estimate for BioXcel Therapeutics is a loss of $4.36 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +64.1$0.15 million, which is a decrease of 60.5% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from covering analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for BioXcel is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -15.50%, suggesting a bearish sentiment among analysts [10]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with a strong predictive power for positive readings [7][8]. - BioXcel's current Zacks Rank is 2 (Buy), but the negative Earnings ESP complicates predictions for an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, BioXcel was expected to post a loss of $8 per share but delivered a loss of$5.12, resulting in a surprise of +36% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, BioXcel has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Industry Comparison - Another company in the same industry, IGM Biosciences, Inc. (IGMS), is expected to report a loss of $0.72 per share, with revenues projected at$0.53 million, down 18.5% year-over-year [17]. - IGM has an Earnings ESP of 4.55% and a Zacks Rank of 2, indicating a higher likelihood of beating consensus EPS estimates [18].