AmEx Sweetens the Deal With a Dividend Hike: Buy, Hold or Sell?

Core Viewpoint - American Express Company (AXP) has announced a 17% increase in its quarterly dividend, reflecting confidence in its cash flow and growth prospects, although its current dividend yield remains lower than the industry average [1][2]. Dividend Growth - The quarterly dividend has been raised by 12 cents to 82 cents per share, amounting to $3.28 annually, with payment scheduled for May 9, 2025 [1]. - Over the past five years, AXP has increased its dividend three times, indicating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [3]. - In 2022, 2023, and 2024, AXP returned $4.9 billion, $5.3 billion, and $7.9 billion, respectively, through dividends and share buybacks, with 76% of total capital generated returned to shareholders [4]. Financial Performance - As of the fourth quarter, AXP held $40.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with a manageable short-term debt of $1.4 billion and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 11.6%, below the industry average of 18.9% [6]. - Operating cash flow declined from $18.6 billion in 2023 to $14.1 billion in 2024, but growth initiatives are expected to drive a rebound [6]. Market Position and Strategy - AXP benefits from a dual role as both a bank and a credit card network, maximizing profitability through strong credit performance and operational efficiency [7]. - The company is focusing on premium clientele and expanding its reach to younger generations, particularly Gen Z and Millennials, to build brand loyalty and future growth [8]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 adjusted earnings is $15.32 per share, indicating a 14.8% year-over-year growth, with further growth expected in 2026 [9]. Price Performance - AXP's stock price increased by 36.1% over the past year, outperforming both the industry and the S&P 500 Index [10]. Valuation - AXP is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 18.81X, higher than the industry average of 14.41X, reflecting strong investor confidence [13]. Investment Outlook - Analysts anticipate increased consumer spending, which is expected to drive higher loan demand and transaction volumes, positioning AXP favorably for short-term gains [15]. - The company's evolving customer mix and strategic focus on younger consumers present a promising long-term growth strategy [16]. - Technical indicators show AXP trading above its 200-day simple moving average, suggesting strong upward momentum and a potential 7.22% upside from current levels [17].