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Analyzing Retail Earnings in a High-Tariff Economy
BBYBest Buy(BBY) ZACKS·2025-03-06 00:30

Retail Sector - The retail sector is currently facing challenges due to tariffs, impacting earnings and guidance from major retailers like Target and Best Buy [2][3][4] - Target reported decent holiday quarter results but lowered its comparable sales guidance, citing tariff impacts and signs of weakness in February [5][3] - Best Buy experienced its first positive comparable sales growth since Q3 2021, driven by strong demand in mobile phones and computers, despite facing significant tariff pressures [6][8] Earnings Trends - The overall earnings reporting cycle has shown positive results, with S&P 500 companies reporting a 14.8% increase in earnings and a 5.8% rise in revenues compared to the previous year [7] - In the retail sector, earnings for Q4 are up 28.8% year-over-year, with 75.9% of companies beating EPS estimates [7] - Excluding Amazon, the retail sector's earnings growth adjusts to 3.0%, indicating the significant impact of Amazon's performance on overall sector results [7] Tech Sector - The tech sector continues to be a growth driver, with expected earnings growth of 25.9% and revenue growth of 11.3% for Q4 [10][11] - This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the tech sector, following a 23.2% growth in Q3 [11] - Recent data indicates a shift in the earnings outlook for the tech sector, with estimates facing downward pressure [12][18] Future Outlook - S&P 500 earnings for Q1 2025 are projected to increase by 6.1% year-over-year, with a broad-based downward revision trend affecting most sectors [15][18] - Despite the challenges, nearly all sectors are expected to experience earnings growth in 2025, with six sectors projected to achieve double-digit growth [20]