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US LNG Capacity Additions Would Significantly Lower GHG Emissions Compared to Alternatives, New S&P Global Study Finds
SPGIS&P Global(SPGI) Prnewswire·2025-03-06 13:28

Core Insights - Continued development of U.S. LNG export capacity is projected to significantly lower global greenhouse gas emissions compared to alternative energy sources, with a potential reduction equivalent to more than twice the annual emissions from all gasoline cars in Los Angeles County by 2040 [1][10] LNG Capacity and Emissions Impact - The study identifies that LNG projects currently on hold or in pre-Final Investment Decision stage could add a combined capacity of 40 million tons per annum (Mtpa) from 2028 to 2040, resulting in a reduction of global GHG emissions by 324 million tons (GWP100) or 780 million tons (GWP20) over the same period, averaging 65 million tons per year [2] - The net reduction in emissions is attributed to the lower GHG intensity of U.S. LNG compared to the average intensity of alternative energy sources, with 85% of these alternatives being fossil fuels from non-U.S. sources [3] Economic Contributions - The expansion of U.S. LNG capacity is expected to support nearly half a million domestic jobs annually and contribute 1.3trilliontoU.S.GDPthrough2040,withnegligibleimpactondomesticgasprices[5]IfnoneworcurrentlypausedU.S.LNGcapacitycomesonline,over100,000jobsandmorethan1.3 trillion to U.S. GDP through 2040, with negligible impact on domestic gas prices [5] - If no new or currently paused U.S. LNG capacity comes online, over 100,000 jobs and more than 250 billion in GDP contributions are at risk [5] State and Congressional District Level Impacts - Economic impacts extend beyond core gas-producing states, with 37% of total jobs (180,000+) and 30% of GDP contributions (390billion)occurringinnonproducingareasthrough2040,indicatingthat90390 billion) occurring in non-producing areas through 2040, indicating that 90% of every dollar spent would remain within the U.S. supply chain [7] - Economic contributions are concentrated in congressional districts with investments in natural gas exploration, liquefaction activities, or businesses within the LNG export supply chain [8] Infrastructure and Price Impacts - The study highlights the potential benefits of removing infrastructure bottlenecks in the U.S. Northeast, where pipeline constraints have led to gas prices 15-40% higher than the national average [11] - Expanding Northeast exit capacity by 6 billion cubic feet per day could lead to significant consumer savings, exceeding the estimated 14 billion in capital costs for pipeline expansions, with projected reductions in gas prices of 20%-30% for Northeast markets [12][18]