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Molina (MOH) Up 13.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
MOHMolina Healthcare(MOH) ZACKS·2025-03-07 17:36

Core Viewpoint - Molina Healthcare's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings report showed mixed results, with adjusted EPS missing estimates but total revenues increasing significantly year over year. The company faces challenges from rising medical costs and lower-than-expected membership growth, which may impact future performance [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q4 2024 was 5.05,missingtheZacksConsensusEstimateof5.05, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 5.81, but representing a 15.3% increase from the previous year [2]. - Total revenues reached 10.5billion,a1610.5 billion, a 16% year-over-year improvement, although it slightly missed consensus expectations [2]. - For the full year 2024, total revenues were 40.65 billion, up from 34.07billionin2023,exceedingtheestimateof34.07 billion in 2023, exceeding the estimate of 40.58 billion [4]. Operational Insights - Premium revenues in Q4 2024 were 9.98billion,a19.49.98 billion, a 19.4% increase year over year, surpassing estimates [5]. - Total membership grew by 10.8% year over year to approximately 5.5 million, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.1% [6]. - The consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) was 90.2%, up from 89.1% a year ago, indicating rising medical costs [8]. Expense and Income Analysis - Total operating expenses for Q4 2024 were 10.1 billion, a 15.9% increase year over year, driven by higher medical care costs and administrative expenses [7]. - Investment income decreased by 2.6% year over year to 111million,butitexceededtheconsensusestimate[6].FutureGuidanceFor2025,Molinaexpectspremiumrevenuestoreacharound111 million, but it exceeded the consensus estimate [6]. Future Guidance - For 2025, Molina expects premium revenues to reach around 42 billion, indicating a 9% increase from 2024 [11]. - Adjusted EPS is projected to be at least $24.50, reflecting an 8% rise from the previous year [11]. - Total membership is anticipated to grow to 5.9 million by the end of 2025, with a consolidated MCR expected to remain at 88.7% [12]. Market Position and Trends - The consensus estimate for Molina has seen a downward trend, with a shift of -11.22% in the past month [13]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the near term [15]. - In comparison, Cigna, a competitor in the same industry, reported a revenue increase of 28.4% year over year, highlighting competitive pressures [16].