今年人民币汇率怎么走？田轩：或在波动中逐渐趋稳

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a trend of gradual stabilization amidst fluctuations by 2025, influenced by both external and internal factors [1] External Factors - Increased uncertainty in the global economic environment, particularly due to the U.S. government's intensified measures against China, is likely to lead to greater volatility in the RMB exchange rate [1] - Recent market concerns regarding Trump's tariff threats have diminished, contributing to a weaker U.S. dollar index and declining U.S. Treasury yields, which may help stabilize the RMB [1] Internal Factors - Domestic issues such as insufficient demand and economic structural adjustments are also impacting the stability of the RMB exchange rate [1] - Continuous policy efforts are expected to improve the economic fundamentals in China, providing strong support for the RMB exchange rate [1] - Specific measures include the implementation of moderately loose monetary policy, potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, and a fiscal deficit target of around 4% to boost consumption and investment efficiency [1] Central Bank Actions - In extraordinary circumstances, the central bank may take various measures, such as moderate intervention in the foreign exchange market and adjustments to foreign exchange reserves, to ensure the exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable equilibrium level [1]