Don't Miss Ulta Beauty's Quarterly Results This Week

Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty Inc is facing a challenging earnings report with expected declines in both earnings per share and revenue, leading to a 3.3% drop in share price as investors prepare for the announcement [1]. Financial Expectations - Analysts anticipate earnings of $7.05 per share for the fourth quarter, representing a 12.8% decrease from the previous year [1]. - Projected revenue for the fourth quarter is $3.46 billion, indicating a 2.8% year-over-year decline [1]. - For fiscal 2024, revenue is expected to increase slightly by 0.5% to $11.26 billion [1]. Stock Performance and Volatility - Ulta Beauty's stock has shown mixed performance post-earnings, with a 9% increase in December among four out of the last eight sessions finishing higher [2]. - Options traders are predicting an 11.3% price swing following the earnings report, which is significantly higher than the two-year average move of 6.1% [2]. Technical Analysis - The stock has declined from a peak of $460 on January 7, marking a 20.8% decrease year-to-date [3]. - The 20-day moving average has acted as resistance since early February, contributing to the stock's losses [3]. Options Market Sentiment - There is a bullish sentiment among options traders, with a call/put volume ratio of 2.01, placing it in the 90th percentile of its annual range [4]. - This indicates a higher-than-usual interest in long calls ahead of the earnings report [4]. Analyst Ratings and Short Interest - Analyst opinions are mixed, with 12 out of 28 analysts rating the stock as a "strong buy," while 13 recommend a "hold" and one a "strong sell" [5]. - Short interest has risen by 10.2% in the last two reporting periods, with shorted shares now making up 5.9% of the total available float [5].