Enova Stock Falls 15.6% in a Month: Should You Buy Now or Wait?

Core Viewpoint - The stock markets have faced significant volatility, impacting Enova International, Inc. (ENVA), which has seen a 15.6% decline in share price over the past month, underperforming its industry and peers [1][4]. Market Conditions - The recent market downturn is attributed to the ongoing tariff war and economic slowdown in the U.S., characterized by stalling manufacturing, weakening job growth, and declining consumer confidence [4]. - Inflationary pressures have risen, with consumer inflation expectations reaching their highest level since November 2023, contributing to market fear and ambiguity [4]. Company Performance - ENVA's revenue growth has been strong, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.7% for revenues and 48.6% for loans and finance receivables over the last five years (2019-2024) [6]. - The company has diversified its offerings, including installment loans, lines of credit, and small business financing, which supports revenue generation [10]. Growth Opportunities - Enova aims to capitalize on the $78 billion U.S. consumer lending opportunity and the $308 billion small business loan market, driven by the rise of e-commerce and online financial services [11]. - The company has leveraged technology to enhance lending activities, accumulating over 85 terabytes of consumer behavior data, which aids in underwriting and reduces default risks [16][17]. Financial Health - As of December 31, 2024, Enova had cash and cash equivalents totaling $322.7 million and a long-term debt of $3.6 billion, with $944 million in revolving credit facilities available [19]. - The company has not paid dividends but has initiated a $300 million share repurchase plan, with $234.6 million remaining for repurchase as of December 31, 2024 [20]. Analyst Sentiment - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Enova's 2025 earnings is $11.50 per share, reflecting a 25.7% year-over-year growth, with a marginal increase in the 2026 earnings estimate to $13.65 [21][23]. - Enova's return on equity (ROE) stands at 19.94%, outperforming the industry average of 13.09% and its peers [24][27]. Valuation and Risks - Enova's price-to-book ratio (P/B) is 2.03X, higher than the industry's 0.80X, indicating that the stock is trading at a premium [32]. - The company has experienced a five-year CAGR of 23.9% in expenses, primarily due to increased marketing and administrative costs, which may continue in the near term [29][30].