中信证券2025年春季宏观经济展望：蓄势待发

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after three years of economic structural transformation, the share of real estate and its industrial chain in China's economy has decreased from 18% in 2020 to 10%-11% in 2024, while the share of strategic emerging industries has increased from 11.7% in 2020 to 14.1% in 2024, demonstrating initial success in the transition from old to new economic drivers [1] Economic Policy Outlook - The 2025 Two Sessions will feature a monetary policy that focuses more on the broad price system, while fiscal policy will retain reasonable space to address external challenges and weak domestic demand in a low inflation environment [1] - CITIC Securities believes that monetary policy will utilize both total and structural tools to improve the wealth effect for residents, thereby gently restoring consumer demand [1] - Fiscal policy is expected to moderately expand, focusing on enhancing social security to increase residents' marginal propensity to consume, as well as addressing debt issues and expanding investment to support economic growth [1] Economic Growth Forecast - After years of structural adjustments and innovation accumulation, China's economy is poised for a rebound [1] - Considering the potential drag of tax increases on the economy, which may primarily manifest in the second and third quarters, along with trends in domestic demand, inventory cycles, and profit cycles, CITIC Securities predicts a "U"-shaped growth for the economy in 2025, with an annual growth rate expected to remain around 5% [1]