Merck Loses Almost $52B in 6 Months: How to Play MRK Stock

Core Viewpoint - Merck's stock has faced significant declines due to various challenges, including competitive pressures and reliance on its blockbuster drug Keytruda, which is set to lose exclusivity in 2028 [1][10][23]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Value - Merck's stock has declined 19.2% in the past six months, resulting in a loss of nearly $52 billion in market value [1]. - The stock has underperformed compared to the industry and the S&P 500, with a 23.5% decline over the past year [15][22]. - Merck's shares currently trade at a price/earnings ratio of 10.30, which is lower than the industry average of 16.85 and its 5-year mean of 13.18 [17]. Group 2: Key Products and Revenue Drivers - Keytruda is Merck's most significant product, accounting for approximately 50% of the company's pharmaceutical sales and driving steady revenue growth [3][4]. - The company is exploring innovative strategies to enhance Keytruda's long-term growth, including combinations with other therapies and a subcutaneous formulation [5][6]. - Gardasil, Merck's second-largest product, has seen a 3% decline in sales in 2024, primarily due to weak performance in China [13]. Group 3: Pipeline and Strategic Moves - Merck's pipeline has nearly tripled over the past three years, with several new vaccines and drugs expected to launch in the next five years [8]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including Eyebiotech Limited and Harpoon Therapeutics, to bolster its pipeline [7]. - Promising candidates in the late-stage pipeline include MK-0616 for hypercholesterolemia and a respiratory syncytial virus vaccine under FDA review [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Guidance - Merck's guidance for 2025 indicates expected revenues between $64.1 billion and $65.6 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 2% to 4% [23]. - Analysts have lowered earnings estimates for 2025 from $9.44 to $9.01 per share, indicating a bearish outlook [19][23]. - Concerns about the company's ability to grow its non-oncology business ahead of Keytruda's patent expiration in 2028 are rising [11][12].