巨星农牧(603477)：生猪业务驱动业绩反转 成本控制与产能扩张构筑成长动能

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved a significant turnaround in performance driven by its pig farming business, with effective cost control and capacity expansion contributing to growth momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.078 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.43%, and a net profit of 519 million yuan, reversing a loss of 645 million yuan from the previous year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.123 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105.14%, with a net profit of 259 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1]. Group 2: Pig Farming Business - The company’s pig output reached 2.7552 million heads in 2024, with 2.6838 million heads being market pigs, representing a 50.76% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The average selling price of pigs in 2024 was approximately 16.8 yuan/kg, up 12% from the 15.0 yuan/kg average in 2023 [1]. - The company has effectively reduced breeding costs, with the total cost of market pigs maintained below 6.75 yuan/lb, and the breeding cost at 6.13 yuan/lb, down from 7.34 yuan/lb in 2023 [2]. Group 3: Future Plans and Capacity Expansion - The company plans to achieve a pig output of over 4 million heads by 2025, supported by existing breeding capacity of over 180,000 breeding pigs and 260,000 pigs in stock [2]. - The company’s integrated pig breeding project has completed the planned breeding of sows and is expected to start providing market pigs in the first half of 2025 [2]. - A feed factory project in Yucheng District, Ya'an City, with a total planned investment of 150 million yuan, is currently in the preparatory stage [2]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 1.57 yuan, 2.17 yuan, and 2.83 yuan, corresponding to dynamic PE ratios of 12, 9, and 7 times respectively [3]. - The company is given a target PE of 15 times for 2025, with a target price set at 23.55 yuan [3].