成本端支撑偏弱 乙二醇反弹高度上预期有限

Core Viewpoint - The rebound potential for ethylene glycol is limited due to weak cost support and high visible inventory levels, despite some demand recovery from polyester factories [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 24, ethylene glycol futures experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 4476.00 CNY, but closed at 4457.00 CNY with a decline of 1.39% [1]. - The main contract for ethylene glycol is expected to operate within a range of 4400-4700 CNY [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent increases in port inventory levels have been noted, while low-priced raw material purchases from polyester factories have increased [2]. - There is an anticipated reduction in coal-based production due to maintenance plans, potentially driving a decrease in inventory by around 150,000 tons [2]. - The overall supply forecast for the second quarter has been adjusted downward due to unexpected production cuts and increased maintenance plans in Saudi Arabia [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a focus on range trading due to ongoing supply pressures and seasonal demand recovery in polyester and weaving operations [4].