创四年新低！特朗普关税大棒干废印尼股市？

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian stock market has experienced significant declines, reaching a four-year low, primarily due to foreign capital withdrawal and concerns over economic stability amid rising geopolitical tensions and domestic fiscal challenges [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Indonesian Composite Index fell sharply, dropping 4.65% on March 24, 2023, and briefly falling below 6000 points for the first time since 2021, before closing down 1.5% at 6164 points [1]. - Since reaching a historical high of 7910 points on September 20, 2022, the Indonesian stock market has declined by 22% over the past six months, making it one of the worst-performing markets globally [4]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Withdrawal - There has been a collective withdrawal of foreign capital from Southeast Asia, with the MSCI ASEAN Index dropping 10% from its peak last year. Indonesia has seen nearly $1.8 billion in capital outflows this year alone [6]. - The withdrawal is attributed to specific issues within each Southeast Asian country, which have become more apparent as investors reassess their expectations [6]. Group 3: Economic Concerns - The threat of increased tariffs from the U.S. under Trump's administration has heightened risk perceptions for emerging markets like Indonesia, which is part of the "Fragile Five" countries sensitive to foreign capital flows [7]. - Recent deflationary trends have raised concerns about consumer spending, with Indonesia experiencing its first deflation in 25 years as the consumer price index fell year-on-year [8]. - The government's ambitious free meal program, costing an estimated $28 billion annually, has led to significant fiscal strain, resulting in a 20% year-on-year decline in national revenue in the first two months of the year [8]. Group 4: Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Indonesia's MSCI rating to "underweight," while Goldman Sachs has lowered its rating from "overweight" to "hold," further undermining investor confidence [9].