Church & Dwight Stock Trading at a Premium: Time to Hold or Fold?

Core Viewpoint - Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) is currently overvalued with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple of 28.23x, compared to the industry's average of 20x [1] Financial Performance - CHD's stock has increased by 1.6% over the past three months, while the industry has grown by 5% and the S&P 500 has declined by 3.7% [4] - Marketing expenses as a percentage of sales increased by 50 basis points in 2024, with expectations to exceed 11% of sales in 2025, potentially impacting near-term profitability [13] Business Strategy - Strong brand equity allows CHD to pass on cost increases to consumers with minimal demand impact, supporting profitability [6] - E-commerce is a significant growth driver, with online sales accounting for 21.4% of total revenues in Q4 2024, positioning CHD favorably in the digital space [7] - The company has a history of successful acquisitions, focusing on No. 1 or No. 2 brands with high margins, which reinforces its growth trajectory [8] - Over 50% of CHD's innovation pipeline is now focused on emerging categories, diversifying beyond traditional product lines [9] Challenges - CHD faces challenges from shifting consumer spending patterns, with management indicating that price increases are not currently feasible due to consumer exhaustion [12] - Rising marketing expenses and the inability to implement further price increases could pressure margins in the near term [14]