煤炭行业观察：中国神华高股息引险资举牌；瑞众保险增持释放防御价值信号

Group 1 - The coal market continues to show a narrow fluctuation pattern, but the fundamental support logic remains unchanged, with domestic supply contraction, structural reduction in imported coal, and marginal improvement in demand contributing to a gradual bottom support for coal prices [1][2][3] - Domestic supply contraction is evident as low coal prices have negatively impacted domestic capacity, leading to increased production cuts and shutdowns in regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, which will further reduce coal production and support prices [2] - Structural reduction in imported coal is exacerbated by price inversions for Indonesian low-calorie coal, leading to tight supply and rising prices, while high-calorie coal remains weak due to slow recovery in non-electric demand and competitive pricing from Australian coal [3] Group 2 - Despite entering the traditional off-season, non-electric chemical coal demand maintains a 10% year-on-year growth, and with the approach of the traditional peak season, a sequential improvement in demand is expected, indicating a potential rebound in coal prices [4] - Leading coal companies are favored for long-term capital allocation due to their high dividend attributes, with China Shenhua's net profit expected to slightly decline but cash flow increasing, resulting in a high dividend payout ratio of 76.5% and a dividend yield of 5.2% [5][6] - Institutional investors are optimistic about the coal sector's valuation restructuring, with expectations of price stabilization and recovery driven by reduced imports and improved demand, leading to a shift in market perception from cyclical volatility to bond-like attributes [7]