关税硝烟再起！金价、铜价携手创年内新高

Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariff Policies - The recent announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars by President Trump has intensified market volatility, leading to a significant drop in U.S. and Asia-Pacific stock markets [2][3] - The tariff policy has resulted in a surge in safe-haven assets, with gold prices reaching historical highs, surpassing $3100 per ounce, and a notable increase in copper prices [2][5] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies and ongoing tariff measures has heightened risk aversion among investors, prompting a shift of funds into gold [3][5] Group 2: Impact on Inflation and Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs estimates that the implementation of tariffs will increase the effective tariff rate by a total of 2.2 percentage points, which is expected to raise core inflation by approximately 0.2 percentage points [4] - The automotive sector is a primary target for tariffs, with only about 50% of the 16 million light vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2024 expected to be assembled domestically [3][4] Group 3: Commodity Price Movements - Copper prices have reached a year-to-date high of $5.22 per ounce, reflecting a cumulative increase of 28% this year, driven by concerns over potential import tariffs and supply shortages [6][7] - A "copper hoarding" trend is emerging, with expectations that the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on copper imports, which could lead to a significant increase in U.S. copper net imports by 50% to 100% in the coming months [7][8] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The demand for physical gold has surged, with U.S. gold imports in January valued at $30 billion, double the amount during the pandemic, indicating a strong shift in market dynamics [8] - The movement of gold from London to New York is indicative of market panic, as traders anticipate potential tariffs on gold and other metals, leading to a temporary shortage in the London market [8]