RCEP实施三周年：石化贸易红利释放与挑战并存

Core Insights - The implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" has positioned China's petrochemical industry for high-quality development, with petrochemical trade's share of total foreign trade rising from 13.6% in 2020 to 16% in 2023, despite a slight decline to 15.4% in 2024, indicating strong growth resilience [1][2] Trade Dynamics - From 2022 to 2024, RCEP has activated regional trade, with China's petrochemical imports from RCEP countries reaching $168.7 billion in 2022, a 5.7% increase, while exports surged by 30.7% to $124.1 billion, resulting in a total trade volume of $292.8 billion, a 15% growth [2] - In 2023, due to weak global demand and falling energy prices, imports decreased to $160.1 billion and exports to $113.7 billion, leading to a total trade volume of $273.8 billion. By 2024, exports further declined to $106.4 billion, while imports slightly rebounded, resulting in a total trade volume of $268.7 billion [3] Regional Trade Structure - RCEP's influence on China's petrochemical trade is evident, with trade volume within the region reaching $292.8 billion in 2022, accounting for 27.8% of China's total petrochemical foreign trade, and increasing to 28.3% in 2024 [4] - The trade contraction in the RCEP region was only 1.9%, significantly lower than the 6.1% decline in the Middle East and 4.3% in the EU, highlighting RCEP's role in regional economic stability [4] Challenges and Opportunities - The trade deficit in petrochemicals has been expanding, with a deficit of $55.9 billion in 2024, a 20.5% increase year-on-year, primarily due to high imports of energy resources and high-end chemicals, which constitute over 80% of total imports [5][6] - China's reliance on RCEP countries for high-end chemicals is notable, with imports reaching $23.95 billion in 2024, a 6.19% increase, while exports were only $1.139 billion, resulting in a significant deficit of $12.56 billion [6] Strategic Recommendations - To address these challenges, the industry should optimize energy layouts and export structures, enhance regional technological cooperation, and promote green transformation [7][8] - Long-term strategies include accelerating domestic substitution and establishing a carbon footprint accounting system for petrochemical products, while enhancing international certification standards to integrate domestic high-end materials into global supply chains [8]