Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-03-31 02:32Group 1: Market Overview - Lithium carbonate futures have been in a downward trend since December 2024, recently hitting a historical low of 72,400 yuan/ton, marking the lowest price since its listing [1] - As of March 28, the main lithium carbonate futures contract closed at 74,000 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.67% and a trading volume of 94,200 lots [1] - The market is currently dominated by short positions, with long-term net short positions in the main contracts, leading to increased downward pressure on prices [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance has been a significant factor in the continuous decline of lithium carbonate prices, with production increasing while demand has not kept pace [1][2] - Global lithium supply is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 32% from 2023 to 2024, with supply in 2023 projected to be double that of 2022 [3] - The demand for lithium carbonate has weakened, particularly in overseas electric vehicle markets, with a decline in demand expected in Europe and the U.S. due to reduced subsidies [4] Group 3: Company Performance - Major lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium reported significant revenue declines in their 2024 financial results, with Tianqi's revenue down 67.75% to 13.063 billion yuan and a net loss of 7.905 billion yuan [5][6] - Ganfeng Lithium also reported a revenue drop of 42.66% to 18.906 billion yuan, marking its first annual loss since going public [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The lithium carbonate market is expected to remain oversupplied, with predictions of a surplus of 89,000 tons in 2024 and an increase to 141,000 tons in 2025 [7] - Current lithium carbonate prices are nearing 70,000 yuan/ton, with limited downside potential due to cost support at around 68,000 yuan [8] - The market is awaiting signals for stabilization, focusing on supply contraction, demand growth, and inventory reduction [9]