大选胶着、关税风险加剧政策困境 澳洲联储周二料按兵不动

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.1% as it awaits the outcome of the upcoming elections and assesses the economic impact of global trade disruptions caused by the U.S. [1][4] Group 1: Economic Indicators - February data shows a reduction of over 50,000 jobs in Australia, while inflation has returned to the target range of 2-3%, prompting the RBA to seek more evidence before considering further rate cuts [4] - The market anticipates nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut in May, but full pricing is expected to wait until July [4] - Inflation decline is raising real interest rates in Australia, creating additional resistance at a time when economic support is needed [4] Group 2: Political Context - The Australian Labor Party government recently announced a budget including tax cuts and welfare measures, coinciding with the announcement of elections, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures due to competitive spending plans from both parties [7] - The upcoming elections are expected to result in a hung parliament, requiring the ruling party to negotiate with smaller parties or independents for a majority [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The RBA's upcoming meeting will be the first under its new structure, with a newly formed nine-member committee [4] - Economists suggest that the RBA will adopt a "hawkish" pause stance, with expectations that the RBA may counter market predictions of a 70 basis point rate cut by the end of the year [7] - The RBA is set to release its semi-annual financial stability assessment report, and the Governor will participate in a public speaking event shortly thereafter [7]