【债市观察】MLF退出政策利率属性 宽松预期提振债市多头情绪修复

Core Viewpoint - The bond market sentiment continues to recover, with a downward shift in the yield curve, driven by expectations of monetary easing from the central bank [1][4]. Market Overview - During the week of March 24 to March 28, 2025, the yields on various government bonds decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by over 12 basis points from the previous week's high [1][2]. - The 10-year government bond yield ended the week down 3.5 basis points, reflecting fluctuating expectations regarding future monetary policy [1]. Specific Market Movements - On March 24, the central bank announced an increase in MLF operations, which bolstered market expectations for monetary easing, leading to a drop in the 10-year government bond yield to 1.80% [4]. - The bond market experienced volatility, with yields fluctuating throughout the week, including a rise on March 25 and a subsequent drop on March 26 [4]. - The 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.69% over the week, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts increased by 0.38% and 0.22%, respectively [6]. Primary Market Activity - A total of 92 bonds were issued in the primary market, amounting to 822.8 billion yuan, including 35.05 billion yuan in government bonds [7]. - For the upcoming week (March 31 to April 3, 2025), 29 bonds are planned for issuance, totaling 213.74 billion yuan, with no government bonds scheduled [7]. International Market Insights - The U.S. Treasury market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching a one-month high before declining to 4.25% [8]. - The short-term U.S. Treasury yields showed a stronger performance, with the 2-year yield down by 3 basis points to 3.91% [8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, indicating increasing inflationary pressures [10]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined, with the March index at 57, significantly lower than February's 64.7, reflecting growing pessimism about the economic outlook [10]. Institutional Perspectives - Financial institutions suggest that the bond market may present opportunities for trend-based investments, with expectations of a potential rate cut in April [15]. - Analysts from various firms express differing views on the timing and impact of monetary easing, with some indicating that the bond market may face challenges due to high funding costs and profit-taking pressures [16].