特朗普的“解放日” 美国衰退“倒计时”？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights concerns over President Trump's proposed tariffs, which are seen as potential triggers for a new economic recession in the U.S. [2][3][4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced their worst quarterly performance in over two years, with Nasdaq down 10.4% and S&P 500 down 4.6% in Q1 2023 [3] - Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi increased the probability of a U.S. recession occurring this year to 40%, up from an earlier prediction of 15% [4] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 35%, up from 20%, and revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2025 down to 1.5% from 2.0% [4] - Trump's tariffs on imported cars and the upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" are expected to exacerbate economic conditions, leading to higher inflation and reduced consumer confidence [5][8] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to increase by 15 percentage points this year, significantly higher than previous estimates [5]