功率半导体行业观察：IGBT回暖信号显现；碳化硅加速渗透新能源汽车

Group 1 - The global power semiconductor industry is undergoing structural adjustments, driven by the continuous growth in downstream demand from electric vehicles and smart grids, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics for IGBT and accelerated adoption of SiC technology, marking the beginning of a new growth cycle [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand balance for IGBT is improving, with prices stabilizing after a nearly 30% year-on-year decline in Q1 2024, and a positive growth in shipments from Q2 onwards, indicating the end of the industry downturn [2] Group 3 - China's self-sufficiency rate in IGBT is gradually increasing, as domestic manufacturers narrow the gap with international leaders through technological breakthroughs and capacity expansion, leveraging cost advantages to replace imported products in mid-to-low-end markets [3] Group 4 - The mid-to-low-end vehicle segment is becoming a new growth market, with rising sales and penetration rates of electric vehicles by 2025, and increased competition driving down prices, creating significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers to enter the automotive supply chain [4] Group 5 - The capacity expansion in the SiC industry is accelerating, with China's production increasing threefold compared to 2022, and major overseas companies planning to achieve 8-inch substrate mass production by 2025, leading to a downward pressure on prices [5] Group 6 - The transition to 8-inch substrates is expected to reduce costs, as leading Chinese companies have initiated 8-inch production lines, and the cost gap between SiC modules and IGBT modules is projected to narrow from 2-3 times to below 1.5 times by 2026 [6] Group 7 - The shift from 400V to 800V platforms in electric vehicles is accelerating, with SiC's properties making it increasingly prevalent in mid-to-high-end vehicle power systems, suggesting a broader market potential as costs decrease and technology matures [7]