Valaris Needs More Cost-Cutting To Hit 2025 EBITDA Target: Analyst

Core Viewpoint - J.P. Morgan analyst Arun Jayaram has reiterated an Underweight rating on Valaris Limited, lowering the price forecast from $40 to $38, indicating concerns about the company's ability to meet its EBITDA guidance for 2025 despite fleet rationalization efforts [1] Financial Projections - The analyst has revised the 2025 EBITDA estimate down to $522 million from $539 million and the 2026 estimate to $656 million from $698 million, which are 0.8% and 2.8% below Wall Street's expectations respectively [4] - Free cash flow is now projected at $28 million for 2025 and $132 million for 2026, with capital expenditures estimated at $369 million for 2025 and $277 million for 2026 [4] Operational Challenges - There are concerns regarding a potential slowdown in demand in the ultra-deepwater market, utilization gaps from expiring contracts, and reduced opportunities for certain rigs [2] - An incident causing two weeks of downtime on the DS-17 drillship in Q1 2025 may impact operations, although reduced downtime could lead to a slight EBITDA beat compared to forecasts [2][3] Market Dynamics - The potential for more rig suspensions in Saudi Arabia exists, although some rigs leased to ARO are still operating under short-term extensions while longer-term agreements are being negotiated [3] - Investors may shift focus towards companies with a higher concentration of committed floater backlog due to ongoing challenges in the market [5]