皖通高速(600012)：业绩符合预期 优质路产完成注入

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 7.092 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.669 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.55% [1] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company experienced a toll revenue decline of 5.23%, totaling 3.830 billion yuan, primarily due to adverse weather, road network diversion, and construction activities [2] - The main toll road, the He-Ning Expressway, generated 1.411 billion yuan, down 1.11% year-on-year; the Xuan-Guang and Guang-Ci Expressways saw significant declines of 55.26% and 50.37% respectively due to construction impacts [2] - Conversely, the Ning-Xuan-Hang and Yue-Wu Expressways benefited from improved traffic flow, with revenue increases of 56.50% and 66.28% respectively [2] - The Gao-Jie Expressway and Anqing Yangtze River Bridge tolls decreased by 12.29% and 9.19% respectively due to competitive road network diversion [2] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the toll road business decreased by 1.41 percentage points to 61.77%, with total costs amounting to 1.486 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.45% year-on-year [3] - Depreciation and maintenance expenses were 875 million yuan and 182 million yuan, down 4.33% and 6.32% respectively [3] - Financial expenses decreased by 39.03% to 64 million yuan, attributed to lower LPR and refinancing of existing loans at lower rates [3] - The company reported a fair value change loss of 32 million yuan, a reduction in losses by 70.72% compared to 2023 [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue for 2025-2027 to be 6.966 billion, 7.153 billion, and 7.320 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.78%, 2.69%, and 2.33% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.807 billion, 1.845 billion, and 1.794 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 8.29%, 2.07%, and -2.77% respectively [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.09, 1.11, and 1.08 yuan [4] - The company remains optimistic about the impact of road network connectivity on traffic volume and maintains a "buy" rating [4]