Why Dollar General Rallied 18.5% in March, Even As Markets Crashed

Core Viewpoint - Dollar General's stock experienced an 18.5% increase in March, contrasting with a 5.6% decline in the S&P 500 Index, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards recession-resistant stocks [1][6]. Financial Performance - In the fiscal fourth quarter, Dollar General reported a revenue growth of 4.5% to $10.3 billion, surpassing expectations, with same-store sales rising 1.2%, exceeding the anticipated 0.93% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) fell over 52.5% primarily due to one-time charges related to closing underperforming stores; adjusted EPS would have been 9.2% lower but still aligned with margin compression trends [4]. - Management provided a conservative full-year EPS outlook of $5.10 to $5.80, below analysts' expectations of $5.94 [5]. Market Dynamics - The stock's rise may be attributed to its perceived recession resistance, as low-income consumers tend to purchase essentials from discount retailers during economic downturns [6]. - With the risk of recession increasing, investors may have rotated into Dollar General, which was approximately 70% below its all-time highs, suggesting potential relative outperformance in a recession scenario [7]. Investment Considerations - Despite being viewed as recession-resistant, Dollar General's stock is not without risks, as evidenced by its significant decline from previous highs and challenges posed by inflation and theft affecting low-income customers [8]. - The company's margins remain under pressure, and the current economic environment raises questions about the sustainability of its performance, positioning it as a turnaround story rather than a guaranteed safe investment [9].