CSC(601066) 智通财经网·2025-04-05 01:32Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a weak performance in A-shares in March, with a divergence in Hong Kong stocks, a decline in US stocks, a rise in gold, and a pullback in the bond market. It suggests that the current economic environment is characterized by a Kondratiev wave downturn, impacting various asset classes [1][2]. Global Macro Outlook - The report predicts that the peak year-on-year GDP for the US will be in Q1 2025, for Japan in Q2 2025, and for the Eurozone also in Q2 2025. It anticipates a temporary improvement in the yen's performance against the dollar and a strengthening of the euro against the dollar in the future. Additionally, it forecasts that gold priced in dollars will continue to strengthen [1][3]. Asset Price and Fundamental Outlook - According to analyst expectations, the forecasted ROE for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares in Q1 2025 is 7.38% and 6.42%, respectively, with slight adjustments from the previous month. The intrinsic value estimate for the CSI All A Index in Q2 2025 is projected to be 5,343 points. The report also notes that the ten-year Chinese government bond yield is deviating from historical cyclical patterns [3]. Industry and Style Rotation - The report identifies high economic sentiment in industries such as agriculture, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, transportation, and non-bank financials. Currently, institutional focus is on non-bank financials and transportation, while interest in light manufacturing, automotive, consumer services, and comprehensive industries has decreased. Recent increases in institutional attention have been noted in the "petroleum and petrochemicals," "non-ferrous metals," "steel," "consumer services," and "real estate" sectors. The machinery sector is approaching a crowded indicator threshold, while the machinery, automotive, and food and beverage sectors are in a sustained crowded state [4].