British American Tobacco's Huge Yield Is Safe for Now, But Keep an Eye on This Troubled Division

Group 1: Company Overview - British American Tobacco primarily operates as a tobacco company, with approximately 80% of its revenue derived from combustible tobacco products, predominantly cigarettes, which account for about 97% of the volume sold [2] - The addictive nature of nicotine allows British American Tobacco to maintain a steady consumer base, despite the classification of tobacco as a non-essential consumer staple [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company offers a high dividend yield of 7.1%, significantly above the broader market average of 1.2% and the consumer staples average of 2.6%, indicating potential risks associated with the investment [1] - In 2024, British American Tobacco's adjusted earnings payout ratio was approximately 66%, suggesting that the dividend is likely to remain safe in the near term [4] Group 3: Market Challenges - British American Tobacco faces a long-term decline in cigarette volumes, with a 5% drop in 2024, following declines of 5.3% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2022 [5] - The U.S. cigarette business experienced a significant volume decline of 10.1% in 2024, mirroring the struggles faced by Altria, which saw a 10.2% decline [6] Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Both British American Tobacco and Altria are attempting to offset volume declines through price increases, but this strategy may not be sustainable in the long run [7] - Investors should closely monitor volume trends in the U.S. market, as continued declines could signal deeper issues, especially if these trends affect the company's international operations [8][9] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - While the dividend appears secure for now, the ongoing decline in the U.S. market poses significant long-term risks, potentially impacting the company's ability to sustain its dividend [10]