光大证券：生猪养殖规模化加速 结构性成长可期

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is accelerating in scale, with leading companies integrating the entire supply chain from breeding to slaughter and distribution, indicating significant future growth potential [1] Industry Growth Perspective - The pig farming industry is currently in a phase of accelerated scaling, with leading enterprises extending their operations across the entire supply chain, suggesting a broad growth space in the future [1] - The industry is expected to experience a recovery in 2024, but by the first half of 2025, supply pressures are anticipated to return due to rapid capacity replenishment and efficiency improvements, leading to a potential downturn [1] Cost and Efficiency - The acceleration of scale is expected to enhance breeding efficiency and reduce actual costs during this phase, although further improvements may slow down post-scale completion [2] - The long-term trend towards industry scale will lead to profound changes in various aspects, including cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1][2] Cycle Dynamics - The scaling of pig farming will extend the price fluctuation cycle, resulting in irregular price patterns, although it will not completely eliminate cyclical behavior [2] - Price volatility may increase during the down cycles, while the improvement in price drops during up cycles may not significantly reduce the amplitude of price fluctuations [2] Profitability Trends - Accelerated scaling may lead to a convergence in average breeding profitability, but post-scale completion, industry profitability is expected to recover [2] - As cost advantages converge among enterprises, the excess profitability of leading companies may trend towards narrowing [2] Market Dynamics - High-cost farming entities are likely to exit the market over multiple cycles, while those with marginal cost advantages will have the capacity to grow [3] - The accumulation of resources such as breeding stock, land, personnel, and capital will determine a company's ability to expand [3] - The current phase of industry scaling presents significant opportunities for growth, with a focus on cost and resource reserves driving profitability and output growth differentiation [3]